Trump’s Iran Accord Elusiveness: A China-US Partnership of Convenience

The meetings between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing have been marked by carefully choreographed visits to symbolic landmarks and obligatory statements that leave many analysts puzzled. Amidst the pomp and circumstance, one aspect of their discussions stands out: the elusive promise of an accord on Iran.

Trump’s claims about feeling “very similar” with Xi on ending the war in Iran are intriguing but come across as vague and unspecific. His administration has been pressing China to use its influence over Iran, particularly regarding the strait of Hormuz, which is a vital trade route for Chinese oil imports. However, it remains unclear what concrete commitments have been made by Beijing.

The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, downplayed expectations of significant Chinese involvement in resolving the crisis, stating that Washington doesn’t need Beijing’s help. But this stance seems at odds with statements from other officials, including US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who said China is being pressured to take a more active role.

The Limits of Chinese Influence

China’s influence over Iran is limited by its own economic interests in the region and Tehran’s reluctance to be seen as beholden to Beijing. While China has significant economic interests in the Middle East and is Tehran’s largest oil customer, it’s unclear whether Xi Jinping’s government is willing or able to use its leverage to persuade Iran to change course.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University, captured the sentiment of many Chinese when he expressed skepticism about being expected to “clean up” someone else’s problems. This sentiment reflects a broader feeling that China should not be seen as responsible for resolving regional conflicts.

The Strategic Stalemate

The Trump-Xi meetings have been framed by some analysts as a strategic stalemate between the two powers, with neither side willing or able to make significant concessions. Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Obama administration, observed that Xi Jinping has been working towards this moment for years, aiming to establish himself as an equal peer to the US president.

The notion of parity between the two nations is also being promoted by some Chinese experts, such as Wu Xinbo, who noted that the balance of power has shifted in recent years. However, this narrative may be more a reflection of Beijing’s desire for greater international influence than a genuinely balanced relationship.

Implications and Next Steps

The lack of concrete agreements on key issues like Taiwan suggests that the Trump-Xi summit was more focused on symbolism than substance. The absence of meaningful breakthroughs has left many wondering what this partnership of convenience really means for regional stability and global governance.

As the situation in Iran continues to deteriorate, it’s becoming increasingly clear that neither the US nor China is willing or able to take decisive action to resolve the crisis. Instead, both powers seem content to maintain a delicate balance, using their influence to nudge events towards a more favorable outcome for themselves.

The unpredictable nature of Trump has left many in Beijing scratching their heads, unsure what his intentions truly are. As one observer noted, “What he says isn’t necessarily what it means.” This uncertainty is likely to continue to plague the US-China partnership, making it challenging to discern where this complex dance will lead.

As the situation in Iran remains unresolved, one thing is clear: both powers are more interested in maintaining their positions than taking concrete steps towards a resolution. In the midst of this strategic stalemate, regional stability and global governance continue to suffer.